LiveRocket Week 6 & 7 combined 2 Week performance - Up 2%

First of all, I am going to move from weekly to bi-weekly stock price updates for a few months. I am doing this because I am not doing active trading (i.e. STOPs) for another quarter. Until I begin to re-initiate trading, no resaon for weekly price and STOP/SELL updates.

We are beating the markets, true, but that's not good enough for me. We need to be in positive territory.

We had a great week – all of our stocks were up, many of them up big. However, volumes were very low last week – a sign of little conviction in the market. Nevertheless, I think many of our stocks are headed up with strength.

Changes I'd like to make to the portfolio.

More emphasis on agriculture and chemicals. I don't think AG and CF are enough. We are also over-weighted on oil services

Also, I would like to take our remaining cash and buy a put. I can not remain entirely bullish in this market while I see fabulous bear opportunities. So I am going to buy Harley (HOG) puts. Price and date to be determined tomorrow.

I am thinking of moving away from IMA and IO. Both are solid companies but the momentum that I want is not behind them and we’ve waited long enough.
---------------------------------------------------------------
AGRICULTURE

This sector is raging. Wheat prices are through the roof and farmers are making money.
AG – Up 14% for the week. AG released great earnings but the future is more murky.
* Sales – beat by $250M or ~10%
* Earnings beat by 30%. $0.82 versus expected $0.61
* Margins look flat

I think the forward projection is deliberately lowered in order to beat. The CEO said that he was being conservative.
They look set for 40% EPS gains with a 25 P/E. And the weak dollar only helps them overseas. I don’t like the flat margins – with the wind at their backs, the operating margins should be rising.

Looking at their chart, they bottomed last month, tagging $55 again and this time they bounced off and broke away higher. I think they are headed for $70+, so we’ll stay.

CF – Up 9% for the week. Almost at their 52 week high.
* Increased dividend to $0.10 from $0.02
* EPS increased 20X (from $0.14 to $2.38)
* Sales rose 62%
Nothing is changing – full steam ahead.

OIL SERVICES/EQUIPMENT
ATW – Up 4% for the week. Broke $90 again and stayed this time.
* Sales increased 25%
* Earnings increased 79%. They just beat estimates by $0.04 (3%)

One of the things that I like about ATW is that, as Motley Fool pointed out, the other drillers are booked up for 2008. The only available drillers are at ATW, so they can raise prices.
In fact, the Spring quarter (the one after this quarter) will find massive gains as a rig comes off contract and day rates zip up ~$300K.
They are on target for 50% growth with a chance of beating that. With an 18 P/E, that is cheap.

FWLT – Up 10% for the week. Earnings should move this puppy back up towards $80

IO – Up 4% for the week. This is a hot company in a hot sector. I can’t understand why they aren’t rising.

NOV – Up 8% for the week.

INFRASTRUCTURE
MICC – Up 5% for the week. Great earnings, again
* Earnings up 120% (from $0.50 to $1.11 EPS). But that missed expectations of $1.23 EPS
* Sales up 41% and beat expectations by $12M (1.5%)
* Special $2.40 dividend in May
What's not to like?

PCP – Up 7% for the week. Goldman Sachs believes that PCP should be at $158 and is massively oversold. So do I. Good time to buy calls.

VIP – Up 9%. I see a steady climb back above $40

IMA – Flat. They bought another company and promptly gave up another couple of dollars. I will sell after earnings this week if they don’t pop up. They are not rebounding as they should, which is a bad sign imho.
Time to take our profits and go.

MVL – Flat. Earnings will be released soon and I expect a pop to $29~$30.

TRID – Up 1%. It was up to $5.37 before pulling back. I like the direction. It rose on strong volumes and fell on low volumes, so I take the strength more seriously.

WFR – Flat. WFR was up 6% until an analyst questioned its growth potential. A great buy opportunity