Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Update on Investing Tactics

You should have closed your short positions last week, like I said.
Here's what you do next.

1. Expect a 2 week bullish shift. Chalk it up to consolidation, bottom feeding, end of some liquidity problems, and some strong earnings news. Play it anyway you would play a shirt bullish run
2. From mid-February return to a Bearish position (aka buy puts). I say this because we will be returning to a state of fear and uncertainty: no re-assuring earnings will be coming out for 2 months and in the meantime lots more negative data.

Face the facts. Earnings are now getting more and more mixed. There are more sales and earnings misses. When companies beat, they aren't blowing away the results. That is typical of a slowdown.
Meanwhile, unemployment and inflation will pick up.

This is the background for investing over the next 18 months and it is a skeptical background. More bad news will happen than good news.

2 Comments:

Blogger Jeff said...

What puts should be bought?

11:23 AM  
Blogger Andrew said...

Updating puts list this week

8:27 PM  

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