LiveRocket Month 1 Performance - Down 13.4%

Ok, so not doing STOPs was the dumbest move of the year. Fortunately, I think we will make up for that mistake and then some.

First of all, I am now able to return to giving LR the regular attention it deserves. I am going to follow a calendar of sorts - quarterly earnings reviews, regular economic event reviews, and then color commentary as always.

Secondly, a website is proceeding apace. That will help aid the navigation.

Now, I am noticing an upturn in stocks. For the market as a whole, this is somewhere between a dead-cat bounce, a partial consolidation, and a recovery. The problem is knowing which stocks fit which.

Naturally, I think ours are in the recovery segment.

Also, I am going to buy some more TRID tomorrow. If I could, I would buy calls. I expect great news this week and that the CEO will raise guidance.

AGRICULTURAL
Both Caterpillar (CAT) and John Deere (DE) have reported excellent numbers this quarter. The key reason: overseas sales. What troubles me is that CNH is reporting a drop in US sales. With ethanol booming, I expected more equipment sales.

AG – Had a really rough week last week when competitor CNH guided lower due to US sales. Fortunately, the US generates only 20% of AG’s sales. South America (Brazil) generates 20%, Europe 56% and Asia a tiny bit. Growth from South America and Asia should offset any dip in the US.
I remain positive because of Deer’s reported growth in Europe. That bodes well. However, the premise was that US ethanol boom would boost their sales. And if that isn’t happening, we need to exit.
Interestingly enough, AG has been trending up the last few days, more likely in response to over selling Wednesday due to CNH.

CF – After crashing to $90, CF is back above$105. Interest has returned to say the least

OIL EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES
NE had a great release. Almost fully booked for the year, and it was only the 3rd week of the year. So did Haliburton. HAL beat earnings and sales expectations. That included a $22M 1 time charge, meaning that margins and earnings were very solid.

ATW – Rebounding pretty strongly. The NE report helped. I can’t believe how cheap this company is. They have $3 per share cash and are generating $8 this calendar year. That gives them an 8 P/E. For 100% growth. Also, they are an acquisition target.

FWLT – Split, maintained price momentum, and received an upgrade. A pretty good week for FWLT.

IO – I hoped that we would see a response to HAL’s numbers. Lets wait for the numbers to come out and then decide.

NOV – After falling into the 50s, NOV is back in the high 60s. As with all the other stocks, the PEG is ridiculously low. They are sitting on $600M net cash, almost $2 per share. With a 15 P/E and expected growth of ~90% this year and 35% next year, this company is cheap.

INFRASTRUCTURE
FWIW - I consider planes infrastructure (transportation) and PCP is essential to Boeing planes.

MICC – Wow, barely above $100. If they hit their numbers this quarter, they will have trailing earnings of $4.30, giving them a trailing P/E of ~24. Current projections have them growing 250% this year and 40% next year. But a P/E of 24…..

PCP – I can’t fathom this. Great news and raised guidance, and they continue to drop. On heavy volumes. There doesn’t seem to be any news, so the answer is that funds are moving out. Possibly in anticipation of bad news from Boeing. Frankly, there is no bad news for PCP.

VIP – Rising again. They just got the loan needed to buy GLDN. Time to buy some calls.

OTHER
IMA – Another month, another acquisition. Too bad the stock sank 11% on the news. This company has been on a purchasing binge that is taking on a strange shape. Starting as a maker of pregnancy tests, IMA has shifted to a general diagnostics test company and now a new focus on women’s health. Matria is linked to women’s health. I see confusion and shareholder dilution. I don’t like it

MVL – Holding very strongly. No news but the impending IRON MAN movie promotions should generate good buzz.

TRID – Continues to bounce around just above its cash position. But news continues to be only positive.
LCD TV sales grew 58% in 2007.
The future also looks very promising. http://www.digitimes.com/displays/a20080124PR200.html
* Samsung expects 40% growth this year in TV units.
* LG expects unit sales to double
* Corning announced strong sales into the LCD market and raised 2008 guidance accordingly. Importantly, prices held strong while volumes surged: a 11% drop in prices vs a 30% rise in volumes.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5492410.html
China is offering a subsidy to people to buy refrigerators, washing machines and TVs. Seriously. Talk about a surge in energy consumption
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01/20/content_6407120.htm
And CES did wonders for promoting the quality TVs that TRID sells into.
http://www.zacks.com/newsroom/commentary/index.php?id=6789
There are only 3 public companies that make the chips enabling LCD TV picture quality: GNSS, PXLW and TRID. Only TRID is profitable and GNSS is being acquired.

The TRID Calls are calling me. Jan 09$7.50s for $0.55 or July 08 $5s for $0.95 or July 08 $7.50s for $0.35.