Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Interesting week

I don't want to draw any conclusions from a week that has a major holiday in the middle.
For example, Monday's drop could have been housecleaning for the end of the tax year. However, that drop coupled with a drop today demands some attention. Consider the last 2 weeks (just a random starting point) when the Dow closed 12/14 at 13,339
12/17 -172
12/18 +55
12/19 -25
12/20 +38
12/21 +105
12/24 +100
12/26 +0
12/27 -198
12/28 +6
12/31 -101
1/2 -162 (in early trading so far)

Out of the 5 Triple digit days in 2 weeks: 2 positive, 3 negative and the negative were much greater in degree.
Go back another week and the same trend: 1 large up day and 2 larger down days.

Three weeks ago the Dow was at 13,807 and today it's barely above 13,100. Check the volume and you will not ethat it is up and down on regular volumes.

Many of our stocks are holding up well in the face of this downturn. Some are not. MVL in particular is down 7% in 3 days and there is no news. Sounds like some insider trading. It is very likely that MVL will not do well from the retailers at Xmas. We may have jumped in too soon. But we are focused on the movie debut of IRON MAN and the money that could eclipse the Xmas licensing revenue. If we are looking for upside surprises, that is the one we want.

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