Getting caught up
Apologies for being AWOL - too much happening in my personal life.
The last few weeks were, simply put, horrible for us. Because of the market panic we were stopped out of everything. Not necessarily a bad thing, but I was too busy to respond and jump in. We were, for example, stopped out of PCP.
In any case, my investing thesis will follow these guidelines
1. US heading to recession - Avoid any housing, financial, consumer, and IT sectors.
2. Financial institutions are still low-balling the extent of the damage - There is more blood to shed from the housing woes. They will cut back on IT spending for another two quarters.
3. Oil is where the money is to be made. There is no cushion between oil supply and demand.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
Oil price rises have not been seen to cut into US demand yet. Moreover, a 5% drop in US demand will be offset by China, India, Russia, and other non-OECD demand. In other words, demand is flat to rising, even in a US recessionary scenario. Supply is rising slightly but it can not rise much because OPEC does not have the extra room.
Ongoing high prices will drive a lot of exploration and extraction.
4. Developing countries and infrastructurre will continue to grow.
5. US exports of agriculture products will boom
I think the US stock market will suffer from liquidity in the hedge funds and other funds.
The last few weeks were, simply put, horrible for us. Because of the market panic we were stopped out of everything. Not necessarily a bad thing, but I was too busy to respond and jump in. We were, for example, stopped out of PCP.
In any case, my investing thesis will follow these guidelines
1. US heading to recession - Avoid any housing, financial, consumer, and IT sectors.
2. Financial institutions are still low-balling the extent of the damage - There is more blood to shed from the housing woes. They will cut back on IT spending for another two quarters.
3. Oil is where the money is to be made. There is no cushion between oil supply and demand.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
Oil price rises have not been seen to cut into US demand yet. Moreover, a 5% drop in US demand will be offset by China, India, Russia, and other non-OECD demand. In other words, demand is flat to rising, even in a US recessionary scenario. Supply is rising slightly but it can not rise much because OPEC does not have the extra room.
Ongoing high prices will drive a lot of exploration and extraction.
4. Developing countries and infrastructurre will continue to grow.
5. US exports of agriculture products will boom
I think the US stock market will suffer from liquidity in the hedge funds and other funds.
posted by Andrew at
7:39 AM
1 Comments:
I am not able to understand this write-down business...is this some kind of a scam?
Every day one or the other bank announces write down in Billions...But what they are writing down? Loans... the property they have financed? Because look at their sites where they listed the foreclosure property prices...it’s still highly priced at least I am looking at the Bay area prices....so why write down? if they have not sold the property at a loss ?
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home