Monday, April 23, 2007

UCTT Misses - Down 14% in after hours

UCTT reported pretty great results:
* Revenue up 95%, beating expectations by 2%
* Earnings up 100%
* Next quarter revenues reduced about 1%~3% below expectations

The key here is that they missed EPS expectations by 10% or $630K.
Looking forward, things are still good. Analysts expect 40% growth this year and next, and this quarter does not put that at risk. Next quarter is still in range. If you take this quarters revenue upside and add it to next quarter, UCTT is on target to hit analyst expectations.
Nevertheless, UCTT is trading ~$17 in afterhours. The shares are ~133K which is not insignificant. It doesn't look like institutional selling, but this is ~1% of non-insider shares. This will get very ugly because this is a very shorted stock: about 10%. A dip in price could create an avalanche as shorties sell.
It feels exactly like last quarter - solid revenue but an earnings miss.
I focus on the fundamentals, and this is what I see.
1. Growth is stil lsolid but no longer triple digit. The era of phenomenal growth ended this quarter (I pointed that out previously) but we are still enjoying 40% growth going forward
2. P/E is cheap. At $17, the P/E is ~18. That's a PEG <0.5.
3. P/S is <0.9>
I wonder if the AMD problems are contributing to some slowdown.
I don't know why the earnings missed. But the selling off is an over reaction.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

R u going to buy tomo ? If yes , what is price you have in mind

10:42 PM  

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