NTRI crashes, DO Smashes

DO did what I thought they might do: a special dividend.
http://liverocket.blogspot.com/2007/01/why-i-bought-do-and-uctt.html
"I think DO is going to announce a surprise in the next week: possibly a large special dividend."
I just had a feling....They did it last year and they are even more cash rich this year.
We'll get $4 per share on 100 shares. Plus the stock is up ~5% since we bought.
I'm happy to get this one right.

NTRI
Announcement today that they will beat this quarter expectatons by ~5% was joined by guidance for 10% lower earnings next quarter. Not good. To put in perspective: they beat this quarter by $0.04 but miss next quarter by $0.1
Compare this to last year, same quarter, when they missed by $0.02 but expected to beat the following quarter by $0.1 (or about that....I don't have time to check the actual number, but the point is that it is better to miss by a few pennies and then beat by a lot more. Versus beating by a few pennies and missing by a dime.)

First of all, NTRI deserves warm kudos for its long, wonderful run. They are seeing a 300% Year-over-year growth this quarter. Wow! But that falls to 40% next quarter. Apparently the upper limit has been reached: there is only so much money and so many people willing to spend it on mediocre tasting diet food.
That's why I said on August 23rd:
"While I think that they can continue to grow, I have concerns about the actual growth rate. The huge growth isn’t over on a Year-over-year basis, but it is slowing on a sequential basis. I think that this is the last 2 quarters of huge growth."
Turns out I was exactly right: they had exactly 2 quarters before showing signs of sluggishness.

Do you buy now that they are down 25% from their high?
Nope, not yet - for fundamental and technical reasons.
Technically, they had massive short pressure. Around 30% of shares were shorted as of 3 weeks ago. The shorts were pushing the price up and will now push it down hard. They have absolutely no momentum.

Fundamentally, is the stock now undervalued? That depends on your faith in management and what they say. So far they have not succeeded in tapping the new markets they've been discussing (older peopler, overseas, etc). I am also curious about something they said regarding future earnings. The CEO said that earnings were going to drop as the company invested in new markets. Cool, sounds great. So why are sales dropping lower as well instead of rising from these new investments? That inconsistency is puzzling, and I don't like it. Sounds like management bullshit. That indicates the possibility that more misses may happen.
Looking closer at the numbers, I see such great things for the last quarter. Improving margins, surging earnings, and everything I want to see. That is yesterday: tomorrow we see a company that is growing but not surging.
If their 2007 earnings will be $3, then I would give them a 35 P/E. That makes them a $105 stock. But I think the truth is that they are about to flatten and earnings will come in closer to $2.20, which in turn moves the P/E down to 25. That puts the price at $55. That's about where they are now.
So I'll pass on NTRI - no momentum, possible future misses, and no major growth.