Monday, December 04, 2006

What a strong rally today

The markets surged today - DOW up 0.7% and NASDAQ up 1.5%.
I'm glad that we got back in.

What is driving it to go up? It's anybody's guess but I see a few things to consider, including the usual suspects:
1. The Soft Landing Theory
* Corporate earnings still growing while interest rates are flat/down.
* GDP upgraded
* No major corporate announcements to the negative
* Weakening dollar is good for exports
2. The Limited-Option Theory. The housing market collapse means one less place to invest
3. M&A & Private Equity - As mergers pick up, rumors start flying and add to the market excitement. Alcan mentioned buying a titanium manufacturer. Seadrill wants to buy a drilling company and picked up a $6B loan to do it. Mellon bank is getting bought.
4. Liquidity - A lot of focus on M3 is showing that the Fed has been easing credit. That always juices up the market.
5. Strong Global Economy Theory - The idea is that Japan/China and Europe will perform well this year, balancing out a slowing US

Bottom line, the issue is predictability. I think interest rate and global economy predictability is occurring (as far as the money managers are concerned). The challenge meanwhile is inflationary pressures. A collapsing housing market (nobody is denying it anymore) is deflationary. At the same time, a falling dollar is inflationary.
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Oil slipped a bit today in advance of Wednesday's report. I don't expect any sea change on that front - inventory might even trickle up a bit.
But I do call attention to the fact that oil was $56 not 3 weeks ago and now it is back to $63.

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