Sunday, August 20, 2006

Why I am bullish on oil services/equipment

Imagine that you are one of the world's few public oil companies (BP, Exxon, etc). The dilemna you face is that the largest oil reserves are held by National Oil Companies (NOCs).
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, Indonesia, Kuwait, Nigeria, and on and on and on.

In other words, you are getting more and more locked out of known oil reserves. Your only choice is to explore in more exotic locations and bid for offshore exploration rights. That means more drilling rigs, support, drill bits, pipes, and so forth.

Now imagine that you are a NOC. In all likelihood, your country depends on oil but production is slowing.
Venezuela - down since Chavez took over and fired management and stopped investment
Indonesia - now an importer of oil
Iran - Also a net importer of oil
The only way out is to increase oil production, but that's impossible without investing in infrastructure. You need to drill more wells and maybe explore more.

In any scenario, you need to drill.

That is why I am so focused on oil rig drillers and drill bit companies

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