LiveRocket Turbo Week 11 Performance

Here is the bi-weekly update on the 2 week performance.
We have a portfolio value of $105,208. After Margin, that's $83,283
The biggest movers for this period were BMHC Puts (down $16K), CPWM Puts (up ~ $6K), and ZRAN

Here is a review of the stocks and options in the portfolio:

AMX: 250 shares bought @ $34.51 We are up 10%.
DO: 100 shares @ $86.43. We are down 15%. I mentioned previously that there is some weakness here, but I remain a committed fan of oil and companies that grow 100%+.
GRP: 175 shares @ $47.87. We are down 10%. Meanwhile, drilling is picking up and these guys can't make enough product....
NUAN: 900 shares @ $9.13 We are down -13%. They haven't been performing so why do I hold them? For a few reasons.
1. They continue to beat earnings expectations and show strong growth (100% YoY and 90% QoQ)
2. Value Pricing: P/E 27. PEG = 1
3. Insider buying. This last week insiders including the Charirman picked up 2.3M shares. Additionally, Warburg Pincus bought 1.5M shares.

STX: 350 shares @ $23.33. We are down -8%. The reason: they are accelrating the Maxtor shutdown. When STX bought the competition, they did it to shut them down. Now they are wiping it off their books aggressively, and then we have Vista in 6+ months. I am counting on Vista to drive more hard drive buying. Meanwhile, STX's P/E is lower than historical average.
TTI: 275 shares @ $30.6. We are down 9%. Still no love for a company that is growing 80% YoY and beat expectations. A major reason why I still want to hold them: margins. They grew margins again sequentially and YoY.
ZOLT 275 shares @ $32.03. We are down 37% (a slight worsening). They reported a 60% Sales growth and moved from a loss to a gain. The problem is that they are supply constrained on some precursor materials. If they can correct that, the stock will accelerate again. I also like the improving balance sheet: debt is way down and cash is way up (as is equipment - a good sign for a company ramping up to meet demand)
ZRAN 305 shares @ $25.56. We are down 33%. I think we stay here because this small chip company that makes graphics is oversold. They got clipped because their growth forecasts for next quarter are not aggressive enough (they guided sales 3% lower than consensus). Also, they haven't released earnings due to an options review. Meanwhile they have beaten earnings expectations every quarter for the last 4 quarters........Beaten? I mean clobbered.

Notes: 1 - an option contract equals 100 shares and the listed prices are per share
2 - Current option price is the bid price (the price you would get, which is lower than the price you would pay)
TIE Calls (Dec 50) 21 contracts @ $4. The company is solid but trading is weak. Meanwhile, the insider purchasing increases and the US government is penalizing Russia by disallowing Russian titanium imports. http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14191917 As usual, Russia is trying to help enemies of the US.

TRID Calls (Jan 22.50) 20 contracts @ $4.1 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060816/consumer_technology_sales.html?.v=1
Sales of flat panel TVs are going through the roof. We have plenty of time for these options to pay off.

BMHC Puts (Dec $25) 40 contracts @ $2.2. We got hit hard here as BMHC soared 20% this week and eroded much of our gains. Rumors of a buyout fueled the surge. I am ignoring rumors and focusing on facts - housing is dying and BMHC will be the first ones to get hurt.

JNPR Puts (Oct $14) 109 contracts @ $0.55. JNPR moved up on CSCO's good news and general positive sentiment. And more likely a short term options squeeze. Juniper has no good news to announce and they will drop again.

CFFN Oct $30 puts 100 contracts @ $0.3. Now at $0.2. We are selling. This is a stock that is clearly manipulated.

ETH - Nov $30 Puts 50 contracts @ $0.8. This stock has surprised me. My theory is that sales of expensive furniture drops as home building/selling slows and remodelling finishes. ETH's competition is dropping hard for exactly this reason. This seems to contradict the theory that people will spruce up the home if they can't buy a new one. It's just a matter of time, but the question is whether we have enough runway.

WHR -Dec $70 puts 15 contracts @ $3.5. Same as ETH.

CPWM - Nov $12.50 Puts 50 contracts @ $0.6. Of the new Puts we bought, CPWM is the first to show the cracks. CPWM dropped 20% and we got to enjoy a big gain here. I expect the next round of earnings for the others to show the same results.

NVL - Dec $20 Puts 20 Contracts @ $1.9. NVL owes 7.25% on $1.4B in notes. It is in default which means that they must pay an extra 0.25% per year per quarter that they are late. In other words, they owe $3.5M extra for being 1 quarter late. If they are late 4 weeks from now, it increases to $7M. If they move to re-finance, it will be at substantially higher rates than 7.25% - probably around 10%. That 2.75% increase amounts to an extra $38.5M in financing costs. They are a slim margin company. Meanwhile, I believe that there will be an aluminum slowdown which will put more bite on them.

RSH - Jan $15 Puts 25 contracts @ 1.15. This stock has actually moved up quite a bit. I'm surprised because this company has no hope of surviving. The goal is to clean it up and sell it. But who wants to buy a company with negative cash flow and stronger competition- Circuit City, Target, Walmart and Best Buy sell the same products and are located in the same strip malls. There is a rumor that Sears might buy them. Not likely. Moreover, they don't own the storefronts, they lease them. No matter how many stores get closed, the company will lose money on same store sales. Meanwhile, they are trading at 22 P/E. That's insane for a deflating company. Goldman Sachs just called them a $8 stock. Key staff are leaving as the turnaround goes forward: the Pres/COO stepped down this week. If the stock heads back down to $10 in the next 4 months, we will be looking strong.