Saturday, July 22, 2006

Week 37 LiveRocket Performance - Down 0.36%

Week 37
Dow 1.18%
S&P 0.32%
NASDAQ -0.83%
LiveRocket -0.36%

YTD
Dow 1.39%
S&P -0.64%
NASDAQ -8.39%
LiveRocket 19.24%

Since Inception (Nov 4, 2005)
Dow 3.3%
S&P 1.7%
NASDAQ -6.9%
LiveRocket 30.59%

We were stopped out of the rest of our stocks except for EMT.
I will be doing a complete stock review in a separate post.

I advised sticking with cash because I do not want to do options trading in this portfolio. Options are risky and LiveRocket Turbo is where we take risky steps.

Next week a lot of my favorite companies are releasing earnings. I expect really good things (again - I'll comment in a separate post).

From the standpoint of next steps, I do see myself getting back into the market towards the end of the week - I am waiting for more Housing Market Madness to run its course.

I will be looking at LEAPs mainly. For anyone unfamiliar, a LEAP is a long term option. Like all options, it provides more leverage. LEAPs offer the other option (no pun intended) of dodging short term fluctuations. For benefits of explanation, lets say 1 year or longer.

As an example, I'll use ESV. ESV is worth looking at because of the enormous earnings growth, upside potential and the strong margin elements.
It was upgraded to a STRONG BUY this week and 25 analysts think it is worth ~$65.
It is trading at $37. P/E is 14 and forward P/E is 5. PEG is 0.19

The Jan 08 $40 LEAPS are $7.70

If you believe (as I do) that ESV is going to be a massive hit then you invest in it. I currently own both shares and Call options.
$10K will buy 2,700 shares or 13,000 LEAPs (130 contracts).
If ESV goes to $50 in the next 6 months, the net gain is:
Shares: $1300 or 13%
LEAPs: At least $10 per LEAP (probably more). That's a 30% gain. And the sooner it hits $50, th emore likely the LEAP is worth much more (as mush as $15).
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Was it smart to tighten STOPs?
Here's a comparison of the STOP price and the current price for stocks in the portfolio of recent weeks followed by a calculation of the impact on performance (rough numbers btw):
AMX $32 vs $33.5 Loss of ($375)
DIS $29 vs 28.47 Gain of $180
ET $20.8 vs $21.95 Loss of ($480)
ESV $42 vs $37.57 Gain of $997
GRP $43 vs $37.74 Gain of $1184
ISIL $22.5 vs $20.44 Gain of $785
JBLU $11.5 vs $11.3 Gain of $130
JLG $20 vs $17.3 Gain of $1350
TIE $28 vs $24.77 Gain of $969
MDR $43 vs $41.07 gain of $386
VOL $44 vs $45.28 Loss of ($256)
ZRAN $21 vs $19.27 Gain of $692
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Tighter STOPs saved us $5,562.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Awaiting your post on your favorite stocks..

9:08 PM  

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