Week 27 - LiveRocket Performance -1.56%

Week 27 (versus previous week)
Dow -1.7%
S&P -2.64%
NASDAQ -4.23%
LiveRocket -1.55%

YTD
Dow 6.2%
S&P 3.45%
NASDAQ 1.77%
LiveRocket 28.63%

Since Inception (Nov 4, 2005)
Dow 8.2%
S&P 5.9%
NASDAQ 3.5%
LiveRocket 40.86%

I don't see what the fuss is all about. On May 3rd I said http://liverocket.blogspot.com/2006_04_30_liverocket_archive.html :
"The market hit 11,300 and is catching it's breath. I expect the market to close up 16% for the year, which is 1.5% growth per month. A lot of spurts followed by consolidation."
This week's activity was exactly that - a spurt followed by consolidation.

And on May 7th I cautioned http://liverocket.blogspot.com/2006_05_07_liverocket_archive.html :
"I think the market has seriously forgotten that rate hikes will happen."

Interest rates were raised and the stock market came down. This is axiomatic. The drop should not have been a surprise. What made it startling was the degree of drop after a significant run-up.
I also think that this was a sign of massive profit taking and overselling. Which means that this week will see some hesitancy until powerfully positive news develops. I don't think that we are through the bad weather yet, but I do see opportunities on panic days to buy in. I continue to focus on the direction of the market

The DOW simply returned a bit of its gains - pulling back to last month's levels.
NASDAQ, however, is decidedly bearish - losing about 3 months of gains and trading at November/December levels.

FINANCIALS
ET – Down 6% after racing up 5% the previous week. All trading houses were hit - the perception that somehow a 0.25% increase in the interest rate will dramatically affect their business. It's down 10% from its high which was established when they released earnings.Since that time, ET has been bouncing around $25~$26.

GHL – Up 3%. Interest rate changes don't affect the M&A business. Off 8% from its high which was established this week. I like that it ended up for the week.

COMMODITIES & EQUIPMENT
GRP – Down 2%. Erased last week's gain. GRP is down ~8% from this week's high. Trading volume is incredibly low relative to where they have been, which is not a positive sign. GRP seems to dive post earnings, consolidate for a month, and then move up. I return to their earnings release and am ready to wait this out.

JLG - Down 20% for the week. Down 26% from its high. Massive selling this week. Technically, this is an incredibly broken stock: it has fallen below the 50 day moving average, 100 dma and 200 dma. For no reason. CAT released incredible earnings, so I see no reason for concern. Earnings release May 24. Some folks have said that JLG had a P/E that was higher than CAT and so should have fallen. JLG is growing 3X as fast as CAT and has a much lower PEG ratio.

JOYG - Down 3%. As with other stocks in our portfolio, this one raced up dramatically this week and then came down.

MDR - Down 1% after racing up 15.8% last week.

TIE – Up 3% for the week. We were stopped out at $86, enjoying a 10% gain for the week. We will b getting back in - I want to see the post split reaction.

HIGH TECH - A bloodbath. NASDAQ was previously outpacing the DOW, and is now falling far behind. Sector rotation due to fears about consumer spending. And they may be correct. Dell is embarking on a massive PC Price War to keep consumer spending up. I think the real issue is that big ticket sales will not be as frequent because folks have already upgraded most items. Our exposure here was limited, but we were affectde.

STX – Down 10%. We were stopped out at $24. I strongly believe in STX but market sentiment is not there.

TRID - Down 5% although it was actually up 1% on a down day (Friday). I remain bullish on TRID.

HEALTH
NTRI – Down 5%. I still want to keep a tight STOP.

TEVA – Down 13%. They missed earnings. No looking back. We got stopped out at $37.7 and are taking a 9% loss. Ouch. We did get $15.40 from dividends.