Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Impact of Stop limits

Were stocks running up prior to earnings and now easing up post earnings? Did we maximize our returns or leave money on the table?

I think we did just fine.
1. Almost all of our stocks went up dramatically over the past 2 weeks
2. The easing from recent (2 week) highs is ~10%, but we would rarely be able to have taken advantage given our stop loss approach that leaves a buffer of 5%~10%.

I saw the volatility and judged it to be in the 5% range. I made a judgment call that we would not play that volatility – that is, sell high, buy lower. My concern was that this tactic can cause more pain and disruption than it does lock in gains.
To what extent is this true?

These were our stops on Jan 23, 2 weeks ago
GILD - $56 Now trading at $60. We missed out on incremental 7%
MRVL – $60 Now trading at $66.5. No ImpactJLG - $47 Now trading at $54 No impactJOYG -$43 Now trading at $51 No impactMDR - $47.5 Now trading at $47.3. Almost no impactAKAM - $22 Now trading at $22. No impactSTX - $24 Now trading at $24.8 No impactGRP - $48 Now trading at $45. ImpactSNDK - $67. Now trading at $62. Impact

Could we have been more aggressive with our stops? Allowing for a 6% buffer on their highs, what could have happened if we had put stops in and moved them?
GILD – Ran up incremental 7%. Lost $4
MRVL – Ran up incremental 15% to $73 before easing back to ~$67. Could have locked in +$2
JLG – Ran up 8% to $56 before easing to $54. No impact
JOYG – Ran up 25% to $57 before easing to $51. Could have locked in +$2.5
MDR – Ran up 4% to $52 before easing to $47.5. Could have locked in +$1.
AKAM – Ran up 4% to $23 before easing to $22. No impact
STX – Ran up 4% to $26.5 before easing to $25 after paying an $0.08 dividend. No impact.
GRP – Never went up. Stop at $48 would have saved $0.5
SNDK, ET & NTRI – Never set stop

So we could have left the stops and would have lost money on one stock and made money on 4 stocks. The net total was a virtual wash.

The real problem is that 2 stocks we bought went down hard: GRP (-10%, NTRI – 25%).
many people would argue that you don't buy during earnings season. Wrong. As I point out above, almost all of our stocks rose during this earnings season.

But I do not like the market sentiment over the last week and set some tight stops. I like these stocks and plan to buy back in when I see some bottoming out.

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