Week 12 Performance - Up 3.65%
Performance to Date (since inception Nov 3rd)
(Nov 3rd - Dow closed 10522, S&P closed 1219, NASDAQ 2169)
Broader market gain: 3.7% Dow, 5.3% S&P, 6.2% NASDAQ
LIVEROCKET gain: 21.65%
Performance Year to Date - Up 11.07%
(Dec 30th close- 10717 Dow, 1248 S&P, 2205 NASDAQ. LIVEROCKET VALUE $109,015)
Broader market gain: 1.77% Dow, 2.88% S&P, 4.49% NASDAQ
LIVEROCKET gain: 11.07%
Stock Performance Overview
Stock Growth >40% 2 out of 19
Stock Growth >30% 2 out of 19
Stock growth >20% 0 out of 19
Stock Growth >10% 5 out of 19
Stock Growth 5%~10% 3 out of 19
Stock growth 0%~5% 4 out of 19
Stock growth <0% 3 out of 19
Week 12 Performance
Broader market gain: 2.25% Dow, 1.82% S&P, 2.49% NASDAQ
LIVEROCKET gain: 3.65%
Stocks up for week: 6 out of 8
Weekly Performance Overview
LIVEROCKET beat Dow/S&P: 9 out of 12 weeks
Dow/S&P beat LIVEROCKET: 2 out of 12 weeks
LIVEROCKET tied Dow/S&P: 1 out of 12 weeks
Individual Investor Performance
If you invested in these stocks and got in and out when I said, then you would have:
Generated >10%+ Returns in 12 weeks 47% OF THE TIME
Generated >20%+ Returns in 12 weeks 21% OF THE TIME
Made money 84% OF THE TIME
WEEK IN REVIEW
Do you see the trend? NASDAQ is growing faster than the Dow and S&P. Pundits are saying tech is back. It’s true, and half of our stocks are tech stocks, so we are positioned nicely.
We also got caught out by the volatility. Sadly, GILD had a down day and we were stopped out, only to miss out on a 10% gain as it rose up furiously this week. Additionally, we bought into Sandisk only to see it crash. I believe in SNDK, but the combination pulled our results down a good 2% for the weekk.
(Note: OPP = Original Purchase Price)
Gilead (GILD): OPP 50, Friday close 59.74. Up 5% for the week. Erases last weeks drop and adds. Sadly, we hit our $56 stop limit on Monday – right before it shot up. We locked in a solid 12%, but I like GILD and wish we hadn’t had to sell.
Marvell Technology (MRVL): OPP 49, Friday close 70.64 Up 15% for the week. Up 44% since purchase. Marvell is benefiting from Broadcom’s stellar results which most people expect to mirror Marvell’s. I think circumstantial evidence will prove them correct. Marvell’s key customers are announcing higher than expected sales volumes (Seagate and Apple). Technically speaking, not only did MRVL rise 5% over its previous 52 week high, it hit $73 before backing off and on 3X average volumes.
JLG Industries (JLG): OPP 38, Friday close 53.9. Up 8% for the week. Up 42% since purchase. JLG is enjoying the glow of Caterpiller’s great results. In case you missed it, Caterpiller announced much more robust sales than expected and predicted upside. JLG is both a competitor and a purchaser of some Cat assets. JLG also hit a new 52 week high.
Joy Global (JOYG): OPP 37.17, Friday close 49.78. Up 12% this week. Up 34% since purchase. And it set a new 52 week high.McDermott (MDR): OPP 42.7, Friday close 51. Up 3% for the week. Up 19.3% since purchase. Midweek MDR hit a new high of $54 before easing up. They dropped 3% today on high volumes. I don’t know if the drop today is just a slight pullback from the dizzying jump this week or if this is more. A drop on a strong day in the market is counter activity that I don’t like to see. I will watch and tighten the stop.
Akamai (AKAM): OPP 19.98, Friday close 22.4. Down 1.5% for the week. It was up to $23 today before pulling back. Up 12.6% since purchase. It keeps toying with $23 before easing up. If you chart AKAM against the NASDAQ for the last 6 months, you see that it is moving independently of the broader market. We are still 10 days away from earnings release, but there is definite resistance here.
Seagate (STX): OPP 20.1, Friday close 26.12. Up 4% this week. Up 30% since purchase. I am starting to sense some weakening here. We may get out soon.
Sandisk (SNDK): OPP 70.02, Friday close $63.4. Down ~7% for the week, almost 10% today alone.
They had a great earnings release: sales up 37%, earnings up 62%, and margins grew 3% from 37% to 40%. And cashflow for 2005 more than doubled.
The market reacted badly to suggestions of pricing weakness and lowered guidance. What is really going on?
Memory Prices Always drop – The question is whether Sandisk is controlling the drop. In 2005, the average sales price (asp) for Flash memory dropped 52% in 2005. Sandisk spooked analysts when they said that they will move to drop prices up to 35% (although probably a lot less) in this quarter.
Driving to higher end – Sandisk is ramping up much more high density flash. Dropping the price on the lowend flushes out inventory and prepares for higher memory. Cell phones, cameras, game boxes, and MP3 players demand much higher memory.
Lower fab costs. Their new 300mm fab is now cheaper to run than the older 200mm lab and that happened 1 quarter earlier than expected. Manufacturing fabs have a certain cost. At the same time, a 300mm wafer is a lot larger than a 200mm wafer and so it produces more chips. The combination means that switching to a 300mm fab makes the per chip fab cost lower. The sooner you can get that plant online, the sooner you can make the gains. The margins improve as you amortize the plant cost over much more production. In effect, the 300mm fab has a much lower fixed cost than the 200mm one and enables greater margin and pricing flexibility. For them to announce that they hit the target 3 months early is a big coup and a testimony to the demand. I am only guessing here, but I would expect them to be using more advanced technologies on the new fab – which makes me think that they are cranking out 1GB+ flash chips.
Moving to systems – Most flash sellers are selling commodity products – flash cards and USB devices. Moving to systems like their own MP3 players reduces revenue erosion and pricing pressure.
Lowball guidance to exceed. This isn’t the first time a company would give softer guidance to exceed expectations.
So I think Sandisk is very much on top of the pricing and most analysts are idiots. Margins will remain quite strong and sales will continue to surge together with earnings. A company growing 50%+ per quarter deserves a much higher P/E than 30.
Grant Prideco (GRP): OPP 49.23, Friday close 49.62. Flat for the week and since purchase. Earnings release is 10 days away and they are susceptible to a lot of oil price fluctuations.
(Nov 3rd - Dow closed 10522, S&P closed 1219, NASDAQ 2169)
Broader market gain: 3.7% Dow, 5.3% S&P, 6.2% NASDAQ
LIVEROCKET gain: 21.65%
Performance Year to Date - Up 11.07%
(Dec 30th close- 10717 Dow, 1248 S&P, 2205 NASDAQ. LIVEROCKET VALUE $109,015)
Broader market gain: 1.77% Dow, 2.88% S&P, 4.49% NASDAQ
LIVEROCKET gain: 11.07%
Stock Performance Overview
Stock Growth >40% 2 out of 19
Stock Growth >30% 2 out of 19
Stock growth >20% 0 out of 19
Stock Growth >10% 5 out of 19
Stock Growth 5%~10% 3 out of 19
Stock growth 0%~5% 4 out of 19
Stock growth <0% 3 out of 19
Week 12 Performance
Broader market gain: 2.25% Dow, 1.82% S&P, 2.49% NASDAQ
LIVEROCKET gain: 3.65%
Stocks up for week: 6 out of 8
Weekly Performance Overview
LIVEROCKET beat Dow/S&P: 9 out of 12 weeks
Dow/S&P beat LIVEROCKET: 2 out of 12 weeks
LIVEROCKET tied Dow/S&P: 1 out of 12 weeks
Individual Investor Performance
If you invested in these stocks and got in and out when I said, then you would have:
Generated >10%+ Returns in 12 weeks 47% OF THE TIME
Generated >20%+ Returns in 12 weeks 21% OF THE TIME
Made money 84% OF THE TIME
WEEK IN REVIEW
Do you see the trend? NASDAQ is growing faster than the Dow and S&P. Pundits are saying tech is back. It’s true, and half of our stocks are tech stocks, so we are positioned nicely.
We also got caught out by the volatility. Sadly, GILD had a down day and we were stopped out, only to miss out on a 10% gain as it rose up furiously this week. Additionally, we bought into Sandisk only to see it crash. I believe in SNDK, but the combination pulled our results down a good 2% for the weekk.
(Note: OPP = Original Purchase Price)
Gilead (GILD): OPP 50, Friday close 59.74. Up 5% for the week. Erases last weeks drop and adds. Sadly, we hit our $56 stop limit on Monday – right before it shot up. We locked in a solid 12%, but I like GILD and wish we hadn’t had to sell.
Marvell Technology (MRVL): OPP 49, Friday close 70.64 Up 15% for the week. Up 44% since purchase. Marvell is benefiting from Broadcom’s stellar results which most people expect to mirror Marvell’s. I think circumstantial evidence will prove them correct. Marvell’s key customers are announcing higher than expected sales volumes (Seagate and Apple). Technically speaking, not only did MRVL rise 5% over its previous 52 week high, it hit $73 before backing off and on 3X average volumes.
JLG Industries (JLG): OPP 38, Friday close 53.9. Up 8% for the week. Up 42% since purchase. JLG is enjoying the glow of Caterpiller’s great results. In case you missed it, Caterpiller announced much more robust sales than expected and predicted upside. JLG is both a competitor and a purchaser of some Cat assets. JLG also hit a new 52 week high.
Joy Global (JOYG): OPP 37.17, Friday close 49.78. Up 12% this week. Up 34% since purchase. And it set a new 52 week high.McDermott (MDR): OPP 42.7, Friday close 51. Up 3% for the week. Up 19.3% since purchase. Midweek MDR hit a new high of $54 before easing up. They dropped 3% today on high volumes. I don’t know if the drop today is just a slight pullback from the dizzying jump this week or if this is more. A drop on a strong day in the market is counter activity that I don’t like to see. I will watch and tighten the stop.
Akamai (AKAM): OPP 19.98, Friday close 22.4. Down 1.5% for the week. It was up to $23 today before pulling back. Up 12.6% since purchase. It keeps toying with $23 before easing up. If you chart AKAM against the NASDAQ for the last 6 months, you see that it is moving independently of the broader market. We are still 10 days away from earnings release, but there is definite resistance here.
Seagate (STX): OPP 20.1, Friday close 26.12. Up 4% this week. Up 30% since purchase. I am starting to sense some weakening here. We may get out soon.
Sandisk (SNDK): OPP 70.02, Friday close $63.4. Down ~7% for the week, almost 10% today alone.
They had a great earnings release: sales up 37%, earnings up 62%, and margins grew 3% from 37% to 40%. And cashflow for 2005 more than doubled.
The market reacted badly to suggestions of pricing weakness and lowered guidance. What is really going on?
Memory Prices Always drop – The question is whether Sandisk is controlling the drop. In 2005, the average sales price (asp) for Flash memory dropped 52% in 2005. Sandisk spooked analysts when they said that they will move to drop prices up to 35% (although probably a lot less) in this quarter.
Driving to higher end – Sandisk is ramping up much more high density flash. Dropping the price on the lowend flushes out inventory and prepares for higher memory. Cell phones, cameras, game boxes, and MP3 players demand much higher memory.
Lower fab costs. Their new 300mm fab is now cheaper to run than the older 200mm lab and that happened 1 quarter earlier than expected. Manufacturing fabs have a certain cost. At the same time, a 300mm wafer is a lot larger than a 200mm wafer and so it produces more chips. The combination means that switching to a 300mm fab makes the per chip fab cost lower. The sooner you can get that plant online, the sooner you can make the gains. The margins improve as you amortize the plant cost over much more production. In effect, the 300mm fab has a much lower fixed cost than the 200mm one and enables greater margin and pricing flexibility. For them to announce that they hit the target 3 months early is a big coup and a testimony to the demand. I am only guessing here, but I would expect them to be using more advanced technologies on the new fab – which makes me think that they are cranking out 1GB+ flash chips.
Moving to systems – Most flash sellers are selling commodity products – flash cards and USB devices. Moving to systems like their own MP3 players reduces revenue erosion and pricing pressure.
Lowball guidance to exceed. This isn’t the first time a company would give softer guidance to exceed expectations.
So I think Sandisk is very much on top of the pricing and most analysts are idiots. Margins will remain quite strong and sales will continue to surge together with earnings. A company growing 50%+ per quarter deserves a much higher P/E than 30.
Grant Prideco (GRP): OPP 49.23, Friday close 49.62. Flat for the week and since purchase. Earnings release is 10 days away and they are susceptible to a lot of oil price fluctuations.
posted by Andrew at
5:17 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home