MVL & TRID

I last mentioned MVL in March.

MVL is a comic book company. Their comics have spawned a multi-billion dollar movie empire through Spiderman and the Xmen, not to mention Blade and the Fantastic Four.

Until 1 year ago, MVL was actually in the licensing business. Spidey t-shirts, X-men video games, and so on. MVL made very little money off th emovies because they were paid a flat fee.

Again, until now. Two things have changed. The first is that the Spidey & X-men movie deals only covered 3 movies each. Subsequent sequels are not covered. Expect the next ones to have much more generous terms including a cut of the net profit.
Other ongoing movie series like the Hulk and Fantastic Four have or are about to have their 2nd movies. Only one more to go before that deal runs out.

The second thing to have changed is that MVL entered the movie making business itself. They cut a VERY smart deal.
1. Borrowed cash to make the movie
2. For collateral, the movie rights to the sequel
Either the movie soars, and the debt goes away or it bombs, and MVL loses some future rights. Their cash exposure is limited. It helps to have a bunch of movies throwing out billions of dollars based on your stories.

The first movie will be debuting in the Summer. IRON MAN. I have seen clips. It looks very, very good. It has the right blend of actors and story and directing. And there doesn't seem to be much competition.

To put this in perspective, they currently do ~$470M in total revenues. One solid movie like IRON MAN would generate a $100M net.

I posted in March that buying was premature - the Iron Movie and $ results were too far in the future. I think that sometime in the next 3 months is a good time to get in.
Meanwhile, they are pretty heavily shorted.

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TRID found its floor. I am in.
They are trendinghigher since they got back into NASD compliance 11/28.