AKAMAI = AKA-BYE-BYE

2 years ago, AKAM was ready to break out. AAPL was gearing up to announce the huge iTunes activity. AKAM was a buy precisely because of that gap between stock price and the business actual/potential growth.

UPSIDE GONE
If people were downloading TV/movies through iTunes, then AKAM would be a buy. But the reality is that folks aren't downloading much video. The huge surge just isn't there.

OVERVALUED
Even at these low levels, AKAM has a 75 P/E. Not bad when they were growing 90% Year-over-year, but that is slowing to 40%. A still respectable rate of growth, but not for 75 P/E.

MORE COMPETITION
And competition has emerged, that didn't exist a few years ago. If GOOG wanted into this space, they could do it easily without AKAM and the iTunes bullshit.

To show the precariousness of AKAM's business, a recent tiff between NBC and AAPL over programming downloads on iTunes sent AKAM shares down ~10%. NBC downloads accounted for 30% of iTunes TV show sales (HEROES and THE OFICE, among others). AAPL is doing something stupid in response - they are pulling all NBC shows.
Not too long ago, Viacom was THE source for cable shows and they strong-armed ESPN (dropping them for a while when ESPN tried to get better rates).
Well, AAPL is trying to do the same thing and folks don't like it. Plus, as NBC is finding, they can let users get their shows via the NBC site. AAPL is about to have problems as the one-stop shop.
Other programmers may take note and bail or ask for better rates.

In fact, Universal Music has also bailed on iTunes.

These are wake-up calls for AAPL that other companies are feeling confident that they do not need iTunes or AAPL.

None of this spells good things for AKAM.