Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Problems with Semiconductor sector?

Two key data points:
1. Semiconductor chip sales are slowing from a 2006 9% growth rate to 5% for 2007
2. Semiconductor equipment Book-To-Bill ratio has been hovering around 1 for some time but it just crashed to well under 0.9 in Japan. North American July book-to-bill dropped to 0.84 from 0.9 in June.

Some good details are also here:
http://edageek.com/2007/07/16/semi-mid-year-2007/

What is going on and does this mean for UCTT and TRID?
Business is not surging because DRAM & Flash prices have dropped. That drop is in dollar terms, because volume continues to be strong. Manufacturers have slowed down capital equipment spending until prices stabilize.

UCTT has 2 things going for it: Chinese presence and position in the one growth area of equipment demand: wafer processing. Chinese sales grew 22% for the quarter. (I do not have and would like to have visibility to whether UCTT is selling into established or new fabs.)

Circumstantial clues to performance can be found in sales by Applied Materials, LAM & Novellus (integrators of UCTT systems). And in general hopes are for a 2H pickup.

As for TRID, they are in a niche that continues to do well.
http://www.hdtv-news.co.uk/2007/08/08/lcd-tv-sales-soar-in-second-quarter/
Sales volume in the 2Q grew 65% year-over-year (39% in dollar terms). More critically for TRID:
"The LCD share of the 40″-or-higher category was 68% during the quarter, compared with 42% in the second quarter of 2006."
The sweet spot is 40" or greater, where TRID dominates.

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