Taking the temperature of stocks
Is the blowoff over? Mostly yes. That doesn't mean that I see a run up. It means that the overselling is over.
STILL SUFFERING FROM THE BLOWOFF
AMX – Flatlining. Still seems undervalued, especially given the substantial customer base growth.
DO – Call me crazy, but I’ll buy 60% growth at a forward P/E of 5. At some point, the market will respect the earnings
ILMN – Interesting. They went into a freefall and stopped at $30, an 8 month low. Time to buy, especially because they are growing AND they bounced off a clear bottom
MDR – BUY BUY BUY. The TXU cancellation of investment in coal burning power plants hit MDR because they are an industry leader in many of the technologies associated with coal plants. But it’s overblown. There are plenty of other opportunities out there for MDR.
NUAN – Clear bottom. Time to buy back in
TRID – Trading between $20~$22. Just a matter of time.
STX – With flash memory prices dropping, that pressures hard drive prices.
INFY – This stock is showing severe collapse. Not sure why.
DIGE – Collapsed after a Roche filing, which had been expected. The reaction is probably overdone: Roche has had the process in Europe for 3 years and DIGE still beats them. On the other hand, I am not sure that we have hit bottom.
CSH – Some states are concerned that payroll loans charge customers too much and are threatening to mandate fees. This of course would drastically harm CSH. CSH is down 15% in 1 month. I think the regulation will go nowhere, but I also don’t think CSH has bottomed.
BACK IN THE SADDLE
ESV – Like the selloff never happened.
GRP – Announced as takeover target.
KSU – Bounced back. Again, the premise with KSU is that they are driving LA/Long Beach port competition. They have nothing to worry about Detroit slowdowns – Toyota is building plants. Coal slowdowns are an issue, as are materials for housing, but KSU was never in the heart of that.
Watch this video.
http://www.wallstrip.com/theshow/2007/03/05/3-5-07-kansas-city-southern-railway-company-ksu/
Try not to throw up at the woman presenter (she’s annoying).
TIE – It has pulled back because takeover rumors seem to be unfounded. Analysts in yahoo predict flat growth, but there are only 2 analysts. And they are idiots. TIE beat expectations by 100% this last quarter. Flat growth?
UCTT – Sigh. I got greedy again and waited.
T – reliable company stealing Sprint’s customers.
PCP – Seriously, I hate myself. BUY BUY BUY
CLB – Like nothing ever happened.
ATW – Like nothing ever happened
HOLX – Not sure what is going on here.
IMA – heading back up
CTSH – Heading back up. I don’t understand why CTSH is up and INFY is down.
OTHER
MRVL – After spiking it’s now slipping. No growth here. Trading stock – buy below $19, sell around 420.
OCN – Freefalling for some time. I’m actually confused here. OCN makes money helping to service defaulting or troubled loans. The more loan defaults, the more business they do. Unless I am entirely mistaken about their business and they have exposure to real estate. I am forced to conclude that either they are getting painted with the same finance brush as subprime lenders or this is a missing opportunity. I am holding off for now. (I do own this btw)
MVL – Down down. The story about MVL is future potential. Today they are cash strapped and heavily dependent on merchandising & licensing. They had to give away movie rights to Sony & Fox in order to stay alive: they get only 5% royalties for XMen & Spiderman. (That changes going forward, but again – that’s future) Some argue that Marvel is a 2 franchise company, despite the stable of 4000 comic book characters. They point to flops: Daredevil, Electra, The Hulk, Ghost Rider, The Punisher. I say those arguments are wrong. Those movies sucked, not the characters. Blade was a minor Marvel hero and that has had a very successful 3 movie run. Moreover, the next Hulk and Fantastic Four are supposed to have learned from the mistakes of the first ones. Other releases (Iron man) show much promise. Bottom line – they can start rolling out tons of these movies and make money.
But it’s all future.
If today’s lifeblood is merchandising/licensing, that too is problematic. FF toys didn’t do well. I’ll assume the same for Ghost Rider. So MVL is actually in a bad place for at least 1 more year when Iron Man releases.
So what do I like? That Sony/Fox have to keep the franchise going. These are billion dollar franchises and Sony will gladly pay $100M plus to keep it going.
So why did it run so high? Over the Summer rumors were started that MVL might be bought by Paramount. Maybe, maybe not.
I think MVL can get a little weaker and then it’s a buy
WFMI – back to the price before Wild Oats.
AMD - Game over. Stay away.
NVDA - Just collapsing. With PCs flatlining, NVDA has no growth. It was up only because AMD bought ATI, and folks expected Intel to buy NVDA.
AAPL - Postpones iTV. iPhone not ready yet. Earnings not quite what will be expected. One positive idea: Apple could license it's new touch screen technology to Sony for various games. Except that Apple doesn't do that. How about an Apple game box?
STILL SUFFERING FROM THE BLOWOFF
AMX – Flatlining. Still seems undervalued, especially given the substantial customer base growth.
DO – Call me crazy, but I’ll buy 60% growth at a forward P/E of 5. At some point, the market will respect the earnings
ILMN – Interesting. They went into a freefall and stopped at $30, an 8 month low. Time to buy, especially because they are growing AND they bounced off a clear bottom
MDR – BUY BUY BUY. The TXU cancellation of investment in coal burning power plants hit MDR because they are an industry leader in many of the technologies associated with coal plants. But it’s overblown. There are plenty of other opportunities out there for MDR.
NUAN – Clear bottom. Time to buy back in
TRID – Trading between $20~$22. Just a matter of time.
STX – With flash memory prices dropping, that pressures hard drive prices.
INFY – This stock is showing severe collapse. Not sure why.
DIGE – Collapsed after a Roche filing, which had been expected. The reaction is probably overdone: Roche has had the process in Europe for 3 years and DIGE still beats them. On the other hand, I am not sure that we have hit bottom.
CSH – Some states are concerned that payroll loans charge customers too much and are threatening to mandate fees. This of course would drastically harm CSH. CSH is down 15% in 1 month. I think the regulation will go nowhere, but I also don’t think CSH has bottomed.
BACK IN THE SADDLE
ESV – Like the selloff never happened.
GRP – Announced as takeover target.
KSU – Bounced back. Again, the premise with KSU is that they are driving LA/Long Beach port competition. They have nothing to worry about Detroit slowdowns – Toyota is building plants. Coal slowdowns are an issue, as are materials for housing, but KSU was never in the heart of that.
Watch this video.
http://www.wallstrip.com/theshow/2007/03/05/3-5-07-kansas-city-southern-railway-company-ksu/
Try not to throw up at the woman presenter (she’s annoying).
TIE – It has pulled back because takeover rumors seem to be unfounded. Analysts in yahoo predict flat growth, but there are only 2 analysts. And they are idiots. TIE beat expectations by 100% this last quarter. Flat growth?
UCTT – Sigh. I got greedy again and waited.
T – reliable company stealing Sprint’s customers.
PCP – Seriously, I hate myself. BUY BUY BUY
CLB – Like nothing ever happened.
ATW – Like nothing ever happened
HOLX – Not sure what is going on here.
IMA – heading back up
CTSH – Heading back up. I don’t understand why CTSH is up and INFY is down.
OTHER
MRVL – After spiking it’s now slipping. No growth here. Trading stock – buy below $19, sell around 420.
OCN – Freefalling for some time. I’m actually confused here. OCN makes money helping to service defaulting or troubled loans. The more loan defaults, the more business they do. Unless I am entirely mistaken about their business and they have exposure to real estate. I am forced to conclude that either they are getting painted with the same finance brush as subprime lenders or this is a missing opportunity. I am holding off for now. (I do own this btw)
MVL – Down down. The story about MVL is future potential. Today they are cash strapped and heavily dependent on merchandising & licensing. They had to give away movie rights to Sony & Fox in order to stay alive: they get only 5% royalties for XMen & Spiderman. (That changes going forward, but again – that’s future) Some argue that Marvel is a 2 franchise company, despite the stable of 4000 comic book characters. They point to flops: Daredevil, Electra, The Hulk, Ghost Rider, The Punisher. I say those arguments are wrong. Those movies sucked, not the characters. Blade was a minor Marvel hero and that has had a very successful 3 movie run. Moreover, the next Hulk and Fantastic Four are supposed to have learned from the mistakes of the first ones. Other releases (Iron man) show much promise. Bottom line – they can start rolling out tons of these movies and make money.
But it’s all future.
If today’s lifeblood is merchandising/licensing, that too is problematic. FF toys didn’t do well. I’ll assume the same for Ghost Rider. So MVL is actually in a bad place for at least 1 more year when Iron Man releases.
So what do I like? That Sony/Fox have to keep the franchise going. These are billion dollar franchises and Sony will gladly pay $100M plus to keep it going.
So why did it run so high? Over the Summer rumors were started that MVL might be bought by Paramount. Maybe, maybe not.
I think MVL can get a little weaker and then it’s a buy
WFMI – back to the price before Wild Oats.
AMD - Game over. Stay away.
NVDA - Just collapsing. With PCs flatlining, NVDA has no growth. It was up only because AMD bought ATI, and folks expected Intel to buy NVDA.
AAPL - Postpones iTV. iPhone not ready yet. Earnings not quite what will be expected. One positive idea: Apple could license it's new touch screen technology to Sony for various games. Except that Apple doesn't do that. How about an Apple game box?
posted by Andrew at
9:15 PM
1 Comments:
Do you still believe AMD to be dying? They apparently nearly doubled their revenue in 2006 and took away a few home PC market share points from Intel.
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