Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Game back on?

Today was a surprise, frankly. I expected a few more days of malaise. I haven't fully caught up, but this was a big vote of confidence today. Th ebottom was reached, even if there is a bad day ahead.

Events for the week that may move things up or down
Tomorrow is the petroleum inventory report, bankruptcy filings report (mainly ignored but hints at things to come), & the January Consumer Credit report. The latter is a key indicator of future economic activity and could move the market.

Thursday is jobless claims. This is a variable that gets interpreted as affecting interest rates. Given that factory orders are down, productivity is going down as well. That is inflationary. An increase in jobless claims counters that trend. Conversely, if jobless claims don't drop or stay flat, that moves out any interest rate decrease.
friday is undemployment for February.
My view: The trend is towards higher unemployment, mainly due to housing. However, January may not show much drop in employment. It was such a mild month weather-wise that construction continued at full blast.
February, tho, will show the pick up in unemployment.

I don't see any specific variable moving the market, but you never know.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What's your take on OCN at this point?

7:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Still very choppy Andrew. Not too sure if the damage is complete.

3:16 PM  

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