Semiconductor sales hit a new high in 2006
2006 semi sales rose 9% versus 2005, according to Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).
The big 3 key markets:
1. Cell phones: more than 1 billion cellphones were shipped in 2006, with continuing strong growth in the emerging markets.
2. PC sales look to hit 235 million units in 2006, but growth is slowing
3. Flat panel TVs which continue to sell at a brisk pace
Moreover they are forecasting a 10% increase for 2007
How are we positioned to take advantage?
Cell phones: I don't know the technology well enough to know who to select. Instead, we are targetting the emerging markets themselves via AMX. I think we should review the Eastern Europe cell phone companies and add.
PC Sales: There are really just a few chips to bother with: DRAM, MPU (INTC & AMD), and graphics (NVDA & AMD). I don't find this exciting because only graphics chips have margins. We could add bluetooth, but that's commoditized already. I prefer the idea of STX and storage. The chips at play here are MRVL.
Flat panel TVs. TRID. End of story.
The big 3 key markets:
1. Cell phones: more than 1 billion cellphones were shipped in 2006, with continuing strong growth in the emerging markets.
2. PC sales look to hit 235 million units in 2006, but growth is slowing
3. Flat panel TVs which continue to sell at a brisk pace
Moreover they are forecasting a 10% increase for 2007
How are we positioned to take advantage?
Cell phones: I don't know the technology well enough to know who to select. Instead, we are targetting the emerging markets themselves via AMX. I think we should review the Eastern Europe cell phone companies and add.
PC Sales: There are really just a few chips to bother with: DRAM, MPU (INTC & AMD), and graphics (NVDA & AMD). I don't find this exciting because only graphics chips have margins. We could add bluetooth, but that's commoditized already. I prefer the idea of STX and storage. The chips at play here are MRVL.
Flat panel TVs. TRID. End of story.
posted by Andrew at
9:05 PM
4 Comments:
Hi Andrew,
Although MRVL is providing chips in many areas - Wireless, Storage, etc - the stock is still under pressure from its option backdating issues. MRVL will be reporting on 02/22. Being MRVL shareholder (@high teens) I am keeping my fingers crossed and hoping they would get rid of this issue soon.
What is your read on MRVL? Do you think it may go up in 2007 or Will it continue to oscillate around $20?
NUAN up big today. I would sell your position and lock in the profit.
MRVL is a great company but in the hsort term they have stumbled. The fact is that their primary markets are maturing - they bought Intel's printer chip business for example: not exactly a high growth market.
Fundamentals do not suggest much stock price growth. With flat earnings growth expectations, a 34 P/E and forward P/E of 30 feel rich.
And they've had earnings misses 2 quarters in a row. While their existing markets continue to grow nicely (iPods, hard drives, networking gear), the growth is offset by pricing pressure. Their only hope is to find new hot markets. They do not have a Flat Panel TV presence like TRID (possible acquisition??). And any iPhone presence won't appear for at least 2 quarters, and most likely 4.
NUAN is so volatile, your point is well taken.
I mentioned a $13 target price and they hit it big. I wonder if MS would buy them.....
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home