Sunday, June 04, 2006

Week 30 LiveRocket Portfolio - Up 2.64%

Week 30 (versus previous week)
Dow -0.27%
S&P 0.63%
NASDAQ 0.41%
LiveRocket 2.64%

YTD
Dow 4.95%
S&P 3.21%
NASDAQ 0.63%
LiveRocket 31.35%

Since Inception (Nov 4, 2005)
Dow 6.9%
S&P 5.7%
NASDAQ 2.3%
LiveRocket 43.85%

Note: I screwed up. I bought GRP 200 shares @ $42.4 on May 22nd but forgot to enter it into my records. I compounded this by buying another 200 shares @ $45.4 on May 31st.
To net it all out, the impact of all this is
* Cash position is (3,445.88). If we didn't have a margin account, then the 2nd GRP trade would not have happened. No confusion. However, like most traders, I do have a margin account and will move forward as if LR does too. Up til now there has been no margin trading and there will be none going forward.
* Last week's results were higher than I reported: unrealized gain on GRP of $600. That amount is $1250 as of this week (GRP is up 15% since May 22nd). So last week should have been 1.4% not the reported 0.79. That makes the jump this week look high (from 40.15% to 43.85%) when it would have looked more like ~41% to 43.85%

OVERVIEW
I continue to follow this premise: corporate earnings have been strong despite the surge in oil and raw materials costs. The economy is strong and we do have a Goldilocks scenario. The only storm cloud on the horizon is housing, something which will affect the economy less than the stock market. Goldman Sachs says GDP will drop as much as 0.6% if housing softens dramatically. That would ease the pressure to raise rates without being a massive drag on the overall economy. Certainly, certain stocks will get hit and we're prepared.

RECENT TRADES
Bought JLG 400 shares @ $21.96 (5/22/06) stopped out $22 on May 31.
Bought JLG 409 shares @ $21.50 (5/31/06)
Bought DO 150 shares @ $82.7 (5/31/06)
Bought ESV 150 shares @ $48.2 (5/31/06)
Bought ZRAN 400 shares @ $24.48 (5/31/06)
Bought GRP 200 @ $45.4 (5/31/06)

FINANCIALS
ET - Flat. Patience is key here.

COMMODITIES/ENERGY/INFRASTRUCTURE
JLG - Down 10%. We are down (3.2%) We got stopped out at $24 for a 10% loss. We waited and got back in ~$22 and were stopped out at $22. Third times is the charm: we bought in @ $21.50.

GRP - Up 7%+. We are up 11% overall the past 2 weeks.

JOYG - Up 4%. We watched JOYG crash, getting stopped out at $51. Waiting for the bottom, we bought back in @ $48.7. The lowest was last week at $45. It's now $55. We are up ~13%.

TIE - Up 4%. We are up 25%. Boeing received new plane orders worth $5.8B at list. That's 20 planes using 59 metric tons of titanium each. That's ~2.4M pounds of new demand. Also, TIE stock crossed $40 again.

DO - Up 4%, we are up 5.5%. There is just too much upside here. Offshore drilling is surging. BTW, offshore drilling requires GRP drill bits and titanium pipes.

ESV - Up 4%, we are up 7.3%.

HIGH TECH
The Semiconductor April report showed 8% increase in sales, dominated by cell phones. A great Y/Y result but it was down 0.4% from March. That's seasonality. The point is growth in chip stocks contonues apace

TRID - Down 6%. We are down a total (18%+). it's down on up days. I will wait for next quarter's results before making a move.
ISIL - Up 0.5%. They re-affirmed guidance that their Book-to-Bill was >1.
RFMD - Up 1%. Incredibly low volume gthis week.
ZRAN - Up 6%.

MISCELLANEOUS
DIS - Flat. cars comes out this week. Should be good - no other movie for kids. Disney has had only 8 down days in the last 24. That makes me feel good about the market sentiment.

NTRI - Up 2%. No volume, no news.

Happy Investing

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andrew,

What are the new stops?

10:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the summary.What about our SLs.

12:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I joined the party late, saw your buy of GRP at 45.40 and proceeded to make a purchase at 45.30 to match it. What stop did you set for this lot?

8:05 AM  

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