Quick updates
A slew of companies reported earnings and I have not reviewed the details. But basically, without looking at the score, the home team of Oil is yelling "We're #1."
From a trading perspective, I pulled the trigger too soon on those calls. Fortunately, we have many months fo rth eprices to catch up.
Fundamentally, it looks like the approach was more or less sound: the target companies are showing signs of strong growth.
There have been some misses. OSG missed expectations because they tried a bad hedging strategy. But their business is booming, so I have hopes that they turn around before January.
I won't go stock by stock at this time, but I will say that there is a clear anti-energy sentiment that is suddenly pushing the energy stocks down. I take that to mean that hedge funds are either on the sidelines or actually shorting these stocks. Eventually, they will return: energy is the only place that is still booming and still showing the ability to beat expectations and raise guidance.
ETFC continues to plunk away around $3. I am watching for another <$3 move to accumulat emore. The strategy here is long term: at some point in 12 months, I believe that this stock will move to $5.
TRID I waited to sell on the assumption that it might creep up a few pennies over the next few days. But I am selling, make no mistake.
The Ultrashorts are so volatile it isn't funny. Again, time will tell.
I was also wrong that the Bear would return. Instead, we are retracing the move up. It suggests that we will move down again. Until now, the rally was because oil was dropping - but it rose yesterday even though oil rose. Perhaps it was the new Housing Bill. It sure wasn't all the bad news. In any case, the market is looking for reasons to stay or go - it has no current direction.
In this kind of sideways market, it i sonly a matter of time before it finds direction. An dI think that it will be downward. We have an upcoming Fed meeting, and that may be the trigger.
In the meantime, if all this market lurching is driving you crazy, don't look. Go short everything except Agriculture and energy. Then look away.
From a trading perspective, I pulled the trigger too soon on those calls. Fortunately, we have many months fo rth eprices to catch up.
Fundamentally, it looks like the approach was more or less sound: the target companies are showing signs of strong growth.
There have been some misses. OSG missed expectations because they tried a bad hedging strategy. But their business is booming, so I have hopes that they turn around before January.
I won't go stock by stock at this time, but I will say that there is a clear anti-energy sentiment that is suddenly pushing the energy stocks down. I take that to mean that hedge funds are either on the sidelines or actually shorting these stocks. Eventually, they will return: energy is the only place that is still booming and still showing the ability to beat expectations and raise guidance.
ETFC continues to plunk away around $3. I am watching for another <$3 move to accumulat emore. The strategy here is long term: at some point in 12 months, I believe that this stock will move to $5.
TRID I waited to sell on the assumption that it might creep up a few pennies over the next few days. But I am selling, make no mistake.
The Ultrashorts are so volatile it isn't funny. Again, time will tell.
I was also wrong that the Bear would return. Instead, we are retracing the move up. It suggests that we will move down again. Until now, the rally was because oil was dropping - but it rose yesterday even though oil rose. Perhaps it was the new Housing Bill. It sure wasn't all the bad news. In any case, the market is looking for reasons to stay or go - it has no current direction.
In this kind of sideways market, it i sonly a matter of time before it finds direction. An dI think that it will be downward. We have an upcoming Fed meeting, and that may be the trigger.
In the meantime, if all this market lurching is driving you crazy, don't look. Go short everything except Agriculture and energy. Then look away.
posted by Andrew at
5:48 AM
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