Unemployment Surges
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080404/economy.html
Another 80,000 people were laid off in March, significantly more than the 50,000 economists expected.
Unemployment is now at 5.1%. A 0.3% jump in 1 month. We haven't seen a reduction like this since 2003, when the last recession was ending.
(If you recall, yesterday I reported that the experts think we'll hit 5.5% by December. I predicted 6.3% by December.)
The sad part is that the only places hiring are the government and the leisure industry. And I expect the leisure industry to soften by the Summer time.
For a while I've been saying that things are worse than what is being reported and worse than what is expected. In response, I have been told that I have a doom-and-gloom outlook. Actually, it would appear that I have a realistic outlook and others are Polyannas.
Understanding reality enables better investing. Period.
Another 80,000 people were laid off in March, significantly more than the 50,000 economists expected.
Unemployment is now at 5.1%. A 0.3% jump in 1 month. We haven't seen a reduction like this since 2003, when the last recession was ending.
(If you recall, yesterday I reported that the experts think we'll hit 5.5% by December. I predicted 6.3% by December.)
The sad part is that the only places hiring are the government and the leisure industry. And I expect the leisure industry to soften by the Summer time.
For a while I've been saying that things are worse than what is being reported and worse than what is expected. In response, I have been told that I have a doom-and-gloom outlook. Actually, it would appear that I have a realistic outlook and others are Polyannas.
Understanding reality enables better investing. Period.
posted by Andrew at
6:01 AM
1 Comments:
Thanks Andrew for the analysis. Everything points to the slow-down and the market is resisting all it can and still down only 45pts.
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