LiveRocket Week 37 Performance - Up 0.7%

Ok, we got blasted by TRID and MICC. MICC is doing well and I expect volatility.

As much as I love TRID, they have cost us ~8% of performance overall. I still think it was a good calculated risk to buy 1000 shares when they updated their financials to get out from the options overhang. Sadly, they dropped from ~$19 to ~$14 since then. I will keep my eye on them - a company growing as much as they are and priced as low as they are will eventually rise.

This week will be dominated by the Fed. I think they are caught. Keeping rates flat signals to Wall Street that the Fed is in charge. But looking out 6 months, the Fed may see signs of a recession that they need to head off.

I think a trade deficit self-correction is happening. A weaker dollar (down another 1.5% in August) makes US exports more attractive. Indeed, a consumer slowdown will - in addition to a weaker dollar - slow down imports. A more balanced trade deficit (ignoring oil) will reinforce the broader economy.

The stock market will benefit from a stabilizing trade balance (at least psychologically). So will a credit crunch in other countries. A meltdown in Germany and Russia will drive a flight to dollars.

I want to add a bit to our NUAN position, possibly add WFR and FWLT and keep ~$10,000 in cash.

AMX – Up 3.3%. No news.
ATW – Up 0.7%
CLB – Up 4%. New 52 week high.
HOLX – Up 1.3%
IMA – Up 2.8%
MDR – Up 3.3%. 2:1 split and hit a new 52 week high before pulling back
NOV – Up 2.9% and hit a new 52 week high
NUAN – Down 2.7%. Turns out Philips has been dumping 2.5% of NUAN shares (~4.6M). It was a private placement. Philips’ sale is small to them ($80M) and it’s part of an inherited investment. I don’t see this as a pronouncement about NUAN’s potential.
In fact, at these low levels, I will add to our position.
PCP – Up 3.2%.
MICC – Down 8.8%
TIE – Up 3.1%. They also signed a tasty 10 year contract to supply titanium for airplane parts to UTC (Pratt & Whitney engines) As usual, the stock barely budged.