UCTT - A prediction

UCTT will miss the $0.23.
Every $210K earnings is $0.01 EPS. They are expected to hit $0.23 this quarter or $4.8M.
They've been in the $4.7~$5.5M range for 3 quarters.

The three reasons I expect a miss (other than the fact that they lowered expectations to $0.2~$0.26)
1. Legal fees - this was the prime reason they missed last quarter. SOX fees of ~$600K hit the results by $0.03. I don't expect those fees to have suddenly dropped or disappeared in 1 quarter
2. Lower than expected Sales - I think they got some pushout. The mentioned $100M (a ~10% drop) which would be an earnings drop of $500K or ~$0.035
3. New costs - Options costs and intangibles will lower an additional $0.03. I think that they are woefully lowballing the options expensing. I see ~500K shares sold by insiders and I would imagine a $2.5M expense.

I think they will hit $0.20, maybe.
BUT I also think they will point to a strong 2H.

Overall, the low results are baked in and I think the strong 2H may give some push.