TRID - What to expect
TRID hs not announced an earnings date. Their last meeting was April 26th, and I expected them to file their latest results Jul 26th (3 months later).
One thing is clear - they continue the practice of limiting information sharing.
If I had to guess, I'd say things are looking good. The market is strong and their share has grown.
1. LCD TV sales are up
iSuppli is projecting firm, agreed with volume projections for 2007 for large TV to 90% unit growth. Much of the growth is due to manufacturing processes that have dropped costs on larger (40"+) screens. Because LCD TVs take up much less space than traditional CRT TVs, consumers are moving to bigger screens.
Sharp and Matsushita reported strong LCD TV sales
GNSS even announced stronger than expected demand.
2. TRID is growing share.
TRID dominates the large TV sector. Companies like Toshiba are expanding their presence in this section, giving TRID opportunities for growth.
3. Competition is concurring
Genesis is seeing strong demand in LCD TV market.
So I project strong unit growth, and the question is about margins and prices. At the last conference call, this issue kept popping up. TRID repeatedly said that they expected margins and earnings to remain steady.
This stock is not being driven by fundamentals. When we look at fundamentals, I would expect ~$300M in sales for the past 12 months and ~$55M in earnings. That's $1 EPS.
Obviously, the stock price should rocket up: 15 P/E and growing 40%+. But it all hinges on TRID getting this baby wrapped up.
One thing is clear - they continue the practice of limiting information sharing.
If I had to guess, I'd say things are looking good. The market is strong and their share has grown.
1. LCD TV sales are up
iSuppli is projecting firm, agreed with volume projections for 2007 for large TV to 90% unit growth. Much of the growth is due to manufacturing processes that have dropped costs on larger (40"+) screens. Because LCD TVs take up much less space than traditional CRT TVs, consumers are moving to bigger screens.
Sharp and Matsushita reported strong LCD TV sales
GNSS even announced stronger than expected demand.
2. TRID is growing share.
TRID dominates the large TV sector. Companies like Toshiba are expanding their presence in this section, giving TRID opportunities for growth.
3. Competition is concurring
Genesis is seeing strong demand in LCD TV market.
So I project strong unit growth, and the question is about margins and prices. At the last conference call, this issue kept popping up. TRID repeatedly said that they expected margins and earnings to remain steady.
This stock is not being driven by fundamentals. When we look at fundamentals, I would expect ~$300M in sales for the past 12 months and ~$55M in earnings. That's $1 EPS.
Obviously, the stock price should rocket up: 15 P/E and growing 40%+. But it all hinges on TRID getting this baby wrapped up.
posted by Andrew at
12:24 PM
2 Comments:
TRID recently announced bonus for its CFO for extraordinary amount of work required in connection with Special Committe investigation into the Company's historical stock option practices, and the preparation of the Company's restatement of its prior period financial statements.
Does that mean we should expect the restatements soon? Also, should we expect TRID to be compliant with regulatory requirements in near future?
So the announcement today was that 2 officers (Acting President and CFO) were paid bonuses for the extra work they have performed.
"in recognition of the extraordinary amount of additional work required in connection with the Special Committee investigation into the Company’s historical stock option practices, and the preparation of the Company’s restatement of its prior period financial statements"
Prior period is for previous quarter and not current quarter imho.
It could reflect a resolution of the situation - we're paying out because we can finally close the books and assess contributions accordingly.
I wouldn't read too much into that, except that TRID seems to be playing by much more stringent rules.
I would prefer to focus on something more concrete:
trading volume has moved above 2.5M shares. that's a sign of interest
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