LiveRocket Turbo Week 9 Performance - Up 1.5%
Here is the bi-weekly update on the 2 week performance.
We have a portfolio value of $116,106. After Margin, that's $94,181.
Here is a review of the stocks and options in the portfolio:
AMX: 250 shares bought @ $34.51 We are up 3.6%. Great quarterly earnings report showing steady growth.
DO: 100 shares @ $86.43. We are down 13% (an improvement from the previous -20%). They had a great quarter. I am sensing weakness in the stock price so I am watching.
GRP: 175 shares @ $47.87. We are down 9% (an improvement from the previous -21%). GRP continues to repeat the pattern of beating earnings and the stock sliding for 2 months.
NUAN: 900 shares @ $9.13 We are flat (an improvement from the previous -4.7%). They report after market closes Tuesday. They are expected to grow earnings 80% Y/Y. That would give them a P/E of 33. And the pace is expected to continue for some time.
STX: 350 shares @ $23.33. We are down 6.7% (worse than the previous -2.3%). They report after market closes Tuesday. STX showed some signs of life but recently have slipped quite a bit. The earnings should be the usual strong quarter if the competitors' results are any indication.
TTI: 275 shares @ $30.6. We are down 5.5% (an improvement from the previous -19.6%). It helped that they beat earnings expectations by 20% on a ~80% Y/Y earnings growth.
ZOLT 275 shares @ $32.03. We are down 26% (a slight worsening). I can't find when they release earnings, but it should be soon.
ZRAN 305 shares @ $25.56. We are down 38% (much worse than the previous 24.6%). Frankly, the market overeacted to an amazing quarter and a great forecast for next quarter. I am hoping that the market re-discovers high tech and semiconductors.
Notes: 1 - an option contract equals 100 shares and the listed prices are per share 2 - Current option price is the bid price (the price you would get, which is lower than the price you would pay)
TIE Calls (Dec 50) 21 contracts @ $4. Almost valueless. Anything is possible with this stock, so I am willing to wait. Still waiting.
TRID Calls (Jan 22.50) 20 contracts @ $4.1 TRID had a great quarter, but earnings are not released as they figure out the stock options issues. Frankly, this is not acceptable. TRID clearly is a dominant chip company in this space. I am willing to wait.
BMHC Puts (Dec $25) 40 contracts @ $2.2. Current value: 4.8. BMHC moved up a bit this week, but I see it crashing even further. I think most folks are still too positive about the housing construction market.
JNPR Puts (Oct $14) 109 contracts @ $0.55. Current value $1.45. I am not sure how the market will respond to Cisco's results. On the one hand, if Cisco shows strength, that may reflect well on JNPR (the market lumps them together). On the other hand, the market may understand that it's a zero sum game and what is good for Cisco is bad for Juniper. Longer term, JNPR is not looking good so we can afford to wait.
CFFN Oct $30 puts 100 contracts @ $0.3. Now at $0.25. This was a bad buy. They missed revenue and earnings targets by 10% but the stock moved up. Clearly this thinly traded stock is immune from basic market forces. This stock has only bad news. For example, it is carrying $7B in short term debt and that is more expensive to cover. Interest payments are ~40% of revenue. We are going to unload as soon as prudent.
ETH - Nov $30 Puts 50 contracts @ $0.8. Current value is $0.4. ETH has moved up recently, mainly as the market as a whole moves up. The market seems to expect that ETH will weather the housing downturn. I do not. We have ~16 weeks to be proven right.
WHR -Dec $70 puts 15 contracts @ $3.5. Current value is $2.15. Same as ETH, rising with the market. WHR depends on the ability to pass costs on to consumers and I just don't see that happening in a slow market. Especially as Korean makers will not follow suit. It's like the airline industry - one company wants to raise prices whereas the low cost companies do not.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060804:MTFH38438_2006-08-04_19-08-46_N04412103&type=comktNews&rpc=44
I expect margins to drop drastically the next quarterly report, and that's when these puts will certainly shine.
CPWM - Nov $12.50 Puts 50 contracts @ $0.6. Current value is $0.95. Cost Plus is doing badly, and we like that.
NVL - Dec $20 Puts 20 contracts @ $1.9. Current value is $1.75. I am counting on higher energy costs to eat into margins. At the same time, I think price increases will be moderating in the face of lower demand (for example, aluminum window panes for housing). And of course, there is Chinese and Russian competition.
RSH - Jan $15 Puts 25 contracts @ 1.15. Current value is $0.15. This is a surprise - the company has risen in value recently. Patience will pay off, I think.
We have a portfolio value of $116,106. After Margin, that's $94,181.
Here is a review of the stocks and options in the portfolio:
AMX: 250 shares bought @ $34.51 We are up 3.6%. Great quarterly earnings report showing steady growth.
DO: 100 shares @ $86.43. We are down 13% (an improvement from the previous -20%). They had a great quarter. I am sensing weakness in the stock price so I am watching.
GRP: 175 shares @ $47.87. We are down 9% (an improvement from the previous -21%). GRP continues to repeat the pattern of beating earnings and the stock sliding for 2 months.
NUAN: 900 shares @ $9.13 We are flat (an improvement from the previous -4.7%). They report after market closes Tuesday. They are expected to grow earnings 80% Y/Y. That would give them a P/E of 33. And the pace is expected to continue for some time.
STX: 350 shares @ $23.33. We are down 6.7% (worse than the previous -2.3%). They report after market closes Tuesday. STX showed some signs of life but recently have slipped quite a bit. The earnings should be the usual strong quarter if the competitors' results are any indication.
TTI: 275 shares @ $30.6. We are down 5.5% (an improvement from the previous -19.6%). It helped that they beat earnings expectations by 20% on a ~80% Y/Y earnings growth.
ZOLT 275 shares @ $32.03. We are down 26% (a slight worsening). I can't find when they release earnings, but it should be soon.
ZRAN 305 shares @ $25.56. We are down 38% (much worse than the previous 24.6%). Frankly, the market overeacted to an amazing quarter and a great forecast for next quarter. I am hoping that the market re-discovers high tech and semiconductors.
Notes: 1 - an option contract equals 100 shares and the listed prices are per share 2 - Current option price is the bid price (the price you would get, which is lower than the price you would pay)
TIE Calls (Dec 50) 21 contracts @ $4. Almost valueless. Anything is possible with this stock, so I am willing to wait. Still waiting.
TRID Calls (Jan 22.50) 20 contracts @ $4.1 TRID had a great quarter, but earnings are not released as they figure out the stock options issues. Frankly, this is not acceptable. TRID clearly is a dominant chip company in this space. I am willing to wait.
BMHC Puts (Dec $25) 40 contracts @ $2.2. Current value: 4.8. BMHC moved up a bit this week, but I see it crashing even further. I think most folks are still too positive about the housing construction market.
JNPR Puts (Oct $14) 109 contracts @ $0.55. Current value $1.45. I am not sure how the market will respond to Cisco's results. On the one hand, if Cisco shows strength, that may reflect well on JNPR (the market lumps them together). On the other hand, the market may understand that it's a zero sum game and what is good for Cisco is bad for Juniper. Longer term, JNPR is not looking good so we can afford to wait.
CFFN Oct $30 puts 100 contracts @ $0.3. Now at $0.25. This was a bad buy. They missed revenue and earnings targets by 10% but the stock moved up. Clearly this thinly traded stock is immune from basic market forces. This stock has only bad news. For example, it is carrying $7B in short term debt and that is more expensive to cover. Interest payments are ~40% of revenue. We are going to unload as soon as prudent.
ETH - Nov $30 Puts 50 contracts @ $0.8. Current value is $0.4. ETH has moved up recently, mainly as the market as a whole moves up. The market seems to expect that ETH will weather the housing downturn. I do not. We have ~16 weeks to be proven right.
WHR -Dec $70 puts 15 contracts @ $3.5. Current value is $2.15. Same as ETH, rising with the market. WHR depends on the ability to pass costs on to consumers and I just don't see that happening in a slow market. Especially as Korean makers will not follow suit. It's like the airline industry - one company wants to raise prices whereas the low cost companies do not.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060804:MTFH38438_2006-08-04_19-08-46_N04412103&type=comktNews&rpc=44
I expect margins to drop drastically the next quarterly report, and that's when these puts will certainly shine.
CPWM - Nov $12.50 Puts 50 contracts @ $0.6. Current value is $0.95. Cost Plus is doing badly, and we like that.
NVL - Dec $20 Puts 20 contracts @ $1.9. Current value is $1.75. I am counting on higher energy costs to eat into margins. At the same time, I think price increases will be moderating in the face of lower demand (for example, aluminum window panes for housing). And of course, there is Chinese and Russian competition.
RSH - Jan $15 Puts 25 contracts @ 1.15. Current value is $0.15. This is a surprise - the company has risen in value recently. Patience will pay off, I think.
posted by Andrew at
6:49 PM
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