TIE, MDR Earnings. GNSS & TRID and JOYG. NTRI
First, one of JOYG's competitors (BUCY) reported blowout earnings. This can only reflect well on JOYG.
Second, GNSS earnings. GNSS tried to blame softness on LCD TV sales. That is remarkable considering all evidence from Samsung, LG, Circuit City, and Best Buy that LCD TVs are the single item selling like hotcakes and keeping them afloat. Oh, and the 140% increase in LCD TV units since last year.
"It's absolute nonsense," CIBC analyst Daniel Gelbtuch said. "The fortunes of Trident are very much different from Genesis. Trident has exposure to the cream of the crop (customers) -- Sony, Samsung and Sharp -- Genesis has some top-tier customers, but mostly they have second-tier players. This is a great buying opportunity for Trident."
Bottom line: GNSS can't even sell crappy chips to off-brand manufacturers. There is no price war looming. Watch TRID scoop up the business.
Third, NTRI. It established a bottom and came back. I will sell if they go below $66.
TIE and MDR earnings. Wow - stand next to an open freezer because these earnings releases were hot.
MDR - How many different ways are there to beat expectations? We knew that they would be great. Let's hope the stock price obliges us.
* Sales: Up 50% to $645M. Beat expectations of $608M. Sales were up in every product line
* Earnings: Up 125% to $0.72 per share. Expectations were for $0.50. Think about that: earnings grew almost 5x the rate of sales.
* Backlog of $6B, 2X last year's
* stock split announced
* In a smart move, they are redemming $200M of bonds paying 11%. That was an easy decision.
TIE - They had no scheduled earnings release date, so this was a surprise
* Sales: Up 85% to $287M. Expectations were $240M.
* Earnings: Up 40% to $0.64. They beat expectations of $0.45. An important thing to note is that the prior year's $0.44 earnings included $0.29 one time tax benefits. That means actual growth was much higher - closer to 4X.
* Backlog - almost $1B, almost 2X last year and up $55M from last quarter
* Prices increased. On average, prices are up 50% but some prices were up 107%. That is a critical reason for the earnings growth
* Volumes increased - Mill products up 19%, melted products up 3%. The capacity constraints prevent much more volume increase BUT additional capacity comes online next year.
* Increased guidance ~8% increase in sales and 15% increase in earnings
Second, GNSS earnings. GNSS tried to blame softness on LCD TV sales. That is remarkable considering all evidence from Samsung, LG, Circuit City, and Best Buy that LCD TVs are the single item selling like hotcakes and keeping them afloat. Oh, and the 140% increase in LCD TV units since last year.
"It's absolute nonsense," CIBC analyst Daniel Gelbtuch said. "The fortunes of Trident are very much different from Genesis. Trident has exposure to the cream of the crop (customers) -- Sony, Samsung and Sharp -- Genesis has some top-tier customers, but mostly they have second-tier players. This is a great buying opportunity for Trident."
Bottom line: GNSS can't even sell crappy chips to off-brand manufacturers. There is no price war looming. Watch TRID scoop up the business.
Third, NTRI. It established a bottom and came back. I will sell if they go below $66.
TIE and MDR earnings. Wow - stand next to an open freezer because these earnings releases were hot.
MDR - How many different ways are there to beat expectations? We knew that they would be great. Let's hope the stock price obliges us.
* Sales: Up 50% to $645M. Beat expectations of $608M. Sales were up in every product line
* Earnings: Up 125% to $0.72 per share. Expectations were for $0.50. Think about that: earnings grew almost 5x the rate of sales.
* Backlog of $6B, 2X last year's
* stock split announced
* In a smart move, they are redemming $200M of bonds paying 11%. That was an easy decision.
TIE - They had no scheduled earnings release date, so this was a surprise
* Sales: Up 85% to $287M. Expectations were $240M.
* Earnings: Up 40% to $0.64. They beat expectations of $0.45. An important thing to note is that the prior year's $0.44 earnings included $0.29 one time tax benefits. That means actual growth was much higher - closer to 4X.
* Backlog - almost $1B, almost 2X last year and up $55M from last quarter
* Prices increased. On average, prices are up 50% but some prices were up 107%. That is a critical reason for the earnings growth
* Volumes increased - Mill products up 19%, melted products up 3%. The capacity constraints prevent much more volume increase BUT additional capacity comes online next year.
* Increased guidance ~8% increase in sales and 15% increase in earnings
posted by Andrew at
6:42 PM
4 Comments:
TIE news didn't seem to move them much in after/pre market. probably due to the pre-release of info earlier. Still a great play. up > 50% since initial buy. Great advice on this one..
I am amazed at your picks' performance. But you got it wrong on SHFL .. its sitting up tight with good volume around 38! Guess we missed out the acquisition of Stargames in evaluating their balance sheet -- most of the skepticism of book-fudging goes away once you accomodate the acquisition...
I am curious to learn your view on SHFL now. Is it just irrational pump-and-dump play on SHFL? Does a company with 120M quarterly revenue, 270M debt justify a P/E of 47 making it worth 1.4B? I shorted it at 33, then made a bigger mistake of trying to average it out by shorting again at 38. Is this a lesson I should learn and move forward -- never average a losing position, always bail out with close to 10%-15% loss-limit? Given my arguments above for the seemingly-obvious over-valuation of SHFL, unfortunately I held on. But I am asking myself the question again, hold it hoping for it to drop or take a HUGE loss and bid farewell.
TIE had a delayed response - up $4 today.
SHFL is moving up (10% this week). IGT has a 30 P/E versus the 47 for SHFL and that's for a 20% growth rate. I must be missing something. The price to book is 51x. It's all very pricey, even factoring in upsides to their growth. I guess Macau has made people very excited, but I am a child of the dotcom bust - show me the money.
The Stargames move broadens their portfolio, but IGT dominates that market. It adds only $50M to the sales.
Anyone can grow through acquisition by taking on debt, the key is being able to pay off this debt. SHFL has $270M in debt and throws off maybe $20M in cash annually. That barely covers the interest payments.
I still see this as more sizzle than steak.
Buying puts on SHFL was a solid contrarian move. The market loves the company and you disagreed. SHFL must have one hell of a story for experts top tolerate this crap.
This company is debt heavy and I , slow growth, and not able to pay off their
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