TRID - Acquisition Target?
Ok - you are the CEO of TRID.
* You know that LCD and Plasma TVs and HiDTV are the consumer product of 2006 and 2007.
* You know that you are looking at the single biggest product transition in history - measuring billions of units. Everyone wants to replace their TV - like when they moved from Black and White TVs to Color. Every Home, Bar, Hotel, restaurant, Banks, and even airplane carriers like JetBlue. In 2005, 21M LCD TVs were sold for $25B. That was 141% growth and sales are accelerating, not slowing down.
* You know that the market is also global in a way that iPods are not. Everyone everywhere wants one. The World Cup drove incredible sales in the Middle East last year, for example. Obviously, it is more of a US/Europe/Asia product.
* You know that it is a price sensitive market and that continued price drops are drawing in more buyers and accelrating that conversion. This price elasticity is working in your favor as the price premium of LCD TV to CRT TV continues to drop. The price will hit $1000 by the 2006 holidays - and a mad rush will be on.
* You know that boosting demand in the US will be Hi Definition cable channels
Your customers are ecstatic - the product keeping alive LG, Sony, Samsung and Sharp is the flat panel TV.
Your customers' customers are ecstatic. Circuit City and Best Buy are doing well because of strong flat panel TV sales.
Any slowdown in US consumer spending won't be felt at Xmas time - the price/performance will be too strong. And even if housing suffers and interest rates go up, the employment market is booming and wallets will be open.
The company's performance reflects this good market conditions. You are the dominant chip provider in this space and continue to capture market share. Sales are through the roof and earnings are soaring even faster. You solidly beat expectations and you even got to raise guidance for next quarter and for the year.
The enormous potential for this market is probably not escaping the attention of other semiconductor companies. Your competition (GNSS and Pixelworks) is losing ground and just not able to keep up.
HOWEVER, a bigger company with deeper pockets could try and swoop in. They may choose to compete head on. OR they may make an offer. You are 61 years old, you've run the company for 20 years. You are cashing out incredibly old options (the $1.50 and $2.40 ones). In fact, in the past 6 months, you've cashed out 5M shares - some options, some not.
In any event, your stock dropped this week. There wasn't even the usual pre-earnings run up.
After bouncing around $28~$30, the stock seemed ready.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TRID&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
You even had upgrades from analysts.
Well, I have faith. Your P/E is now 48 (it was a whopping 600). Next quarter it will be 38. Your sales and earnings are incredibly strong and growing faster than that. You could even start to move into nVdia and GNSS PC spaces.
I also notice that you come raging back after hitting the 50 dma
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TRID&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50,m100&a=m26-12-9&c=
You bounced around Sept and Oct, and then began a steady 30% climb.
You hit the 50 dma in January and then shot up 50%.
Maybe there is investor concern about holiday season TV buying. Maybe they are nervous about possible competition considering the lack of integrated chip.
You are cheap and I am buying back into you. My personal account has an order for 1000 shares. LiveRocket buys back in on Monday.
* You know that LCD and Plasma TVs and HiDTV are the consumer product of 2006 and 2007.
* You know that you are looking at the single biggest product transition in history - measuring billions of units. Everyone wants to replace their TV - like when they moved from Black and White TVs to Color. Every Home, Bar, Hotel, restaurant, Banks, and even airplane carriers like JetBlue. In 2005, 21M LCD TVs were sold for $25B. That was 141% growth and sales are accelerating, not slowing down.
* You know that the market is also global in a way that iPods are not. Everyone everywhere wants one. The World Cup drove incredible sales in the Middle East last year, for example. Obviously, it is more of a US/Europe/Asia product.
* You know that it is a price sensitive market and that continued price drops are drawing in more buyers and accelrating that conversion. This price elasticity is working in your favor as the price premium of LCD TV to CRT TV continues to drop. The price will hit $1000 by the 2006 holidays - and a mad rush will be on.
* You know that boosting demand in the US will be Hi Definition cable channels
Your customers are ecstatic - the product keeping alive LG, Sony, Samsung and Sharp is the flat panel TV.
Your customers' customers are ecstatic. Circuit City and Best Buy are doing well because of strong flat panel TV sales.
Any slowdown in US consumer spending won't be felt at Xmas time - the price/performance will be too strong. And even if housing suffers and interest rates go up, the employment market is booming and wallets will be open.
The company's performance reflects this good market conditions. You are the dominant chip provider in this space and continue to capture market share. Sales are through the roof and earnings are soaring even faster. You solidly beat expectations and you even got to raise guidance for next quarter and for the year.
The enormous potential for this market is probably not escaping the attention of other semiconductor companies. Your competition (GNSS and Pixelworks) is losing ground and just not able to keep up.
HOWEVER, a bigger company with deeper pockets could try and swoop in. They may choose to compete head on. OR they may make an offer. You are 61 years old, you've run the company for 20 years. You are cashing out incredibly old options (the $1.50 and $2.40 ones). In fact, in the past 6 months, you've cashed out 5M shares - some options, some not.
In any event, your stock dropped this week. There wasn't even the usual pre-earnings run up.
After bouncing around $28~$30, the stock seemed ready.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TRID&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
You even had upgrades from analysts.
Well, I have faith. Your P/E is now 48 (it was a whopping 600). Next quarter it will be 38. Your sales and earnings are incredibly strong and growing faster than that. You could even start to move into nVdia and GNSS PC spaces.
I also notice that you come raging back after hitting the 50 dma
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TRID&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50,m100&a=m26-12-9&c=
You bounced around Sept and Oct, and then began a steady 30% climb.
You hit the 50 dma in January and then shot up 50%.
Maybe there is investor concern about holiday season TV buying. Maybe they are nervous about possible competition considering the lack of integrated chip.
You are cheap and I am buying back into you. My personal account has an order for 1000 shares. LiveRocket buys back in on Monday.
posted by Andrew at
11:23 AM
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