Monday, March 27, 2006

TIE up 5.5% today

TIE jumped 5.5% and it's #1 US competitor Allegheny jumped 2%.
Why the jump and why TIE more than Allegheny?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060327/titanium_metals_corp_mover.html?.v=1

According to the article, the US military is not buying US made materials as it is obligated to do under the law. To quote the article:
"Metals producers have argued that too may loopholes have arisen in recent years and that the government hasn't done enough to ensure that defense contractors follow the law, the Journal said. The law in question concerns the 1941 Berry Amendment, which requires the use of domestic materials in a range of military purchases."

The article tries to say that this is a feud between metal producers that make "military equipment on one side, and companies that make parts for planes, tanks and bombs on the other." TIE plays on both sides, so it's kind of irrelevant.
Bottomline, if the US is forced to source more from US manufacturers, that means only TIE and Allegheny. TIE benefits the most because of their domination of aerospace and military Titanium presence.
TIE share of global aerospace demand = 31%
TIE share of global military demand = 32%
TIE production dedicated to aerospace and military = 75%

By the way, TIE's share of the global military market may be 32%, but that's probably close to 45%+ of US military needs given the US domination of global military spending.

Why does this matter? After all, with titanium supplies already tight, TIE can already sell out with no pricing pressure. It's not often a company can grow business 25% with guaranteed demand and prices. As a general rule of thumb, any increase in factory utilization raises amrgins by lowering manufacturing cost (because you spread the fixed costs across more tons of product).
As for their non-US sales, it's only a shift of 5% of worldwide supply, so prices probably won't drop.

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